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Economy · United States · Business activity

US ISM manufacturing PMI

54.5 in September 2026, compared with 54.6 in August 2026.

Monthly · index, 50 = no change · 48.9 a year earlier · Updated 12 hrs ago

Next: ISM manufacturing PMI, Tue, 3 Nov, 2:00am Sydney time (usual time)

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Range, past 10 years52-week and 10-year range The lowest and highest values over a period, with a marker for where the latest value sits between them. Learn more
46.7 Nov 202355.6 Jul 2026
Over 3 monthsYear on year, month on month, quarter on quarter How a figure compares with the same period a year earlier (y/y), or with the period just before (m/m, q/q). Year-on-year removes seasonal swings; shorter comparisons show turning points sooner. Learn more
+2.3%from 53.3
Over 12 monthsPercentage points and basis points The difference between two percentages. A rate rising from 4.00% to 4.25% is up 0.25 percentage points, or 25 basis points; it is not up 0.25%. Learn more
+11.5%from 48.9
Long-run averageLong-run average The average of every reading in the series' history. A rough guide to what is normal, though economies change and some series never return to their old average. Learn more
49.8since 2023
Against its historyPercentile against history Where the latest reading ranks among every reading since the series began. The 90th percentile means it is higher than 90% of past readings. Learn more
94thpercentile: higher than 94% of readings since 2023

HistorySeasonally adjusted A figure with the regular calendar pattern removed (Christmas, school holidays, harvests), so one month can be compared fairly with the next. Learn more

index, 50 = no change, monthly

Show the data
Periodindex, 50 = no change
September 202654.5
August 202654.6
July 202655.6
June 202653.3
May 202654.0
April 202652.7
March 202652.7
February 202652.4
January 202652.6
December 202547.9
November 202548.0
October 202548.8
September 202548.9
August 202548.9
July 202548.4
June 202549.0
May 202548.6
April 202548.8
March 202548.9
February 202550.0
January 202550.9
December 202449.2
November 202448.4
October 202446.9

The latest 24 readings in this range.

Source: Institute for Supply Management, Report On Business (manufacturing), from ISM's monthly press releases. Data from November 2023.

Next releaseFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn more

Tue, 3 Nov, 2:00am Sydney time (usual time) · ISM manufacturing PMI, for October 2026

AI estimateFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn moreclaude-sonnet-5-554.4range 52.3 to 56.4
Model estimate80% range A band that the actual figure should land inside about four times in five. If actuals fall outside it more often than one time in five, the estimate is overconfident. Learn morelast reading plus half the recent trend54.7range 52.9 to 56.5
Last reading54.5September 2026

The PMI has held at 52.4-55.6 since January 2026 and was 54.5 in September, with new orders at 55.3 and employment at 52.7 supporting continued expansion. Mean reversion and very high prices paid (77.9) point to a slight drift down from the 54.5 level, so the estimate sits just below the 54.7 baseline.

Estimates are FinVolio's own, made from this series and related indicators. They are not a consensus forecast and not advice.

What it measures

A survey of purchasing managers at about 400 US manufacturers, combining new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories. Above 50 means activity is expanding; below 50, contracting.

Why it matters

Published on the first business day of the month, ahead of almost every other US figure, so markets treat it as an early read on the cycle. Readings below about 42.5 have historically lined up with recessions in the wider economy.