FinVolio: markets, crypto and the economy for Australian investors
· Markets, crypto and the economy for Australian investors
- AUD/USDAustralian dollar (AUD/USD) How many US dollars one Australian dollar buys. It rises with commodity prices, Australian interest rates and global risk appetite. Learn more
- 0.69740.0%
- S&P 500
- 7,659−1.1%
- Nasdaq Composite
- 26,140−2.1%
- GoldCommodity prices Prices for raw materials such as iron ore, coal, gas, gold and oil. Australia's income rises and falls with them. Learn more
- A$6,024+0.1%
- Brent crudeCommodity prices Prices for raw materials such as iron ore, coal, gas, gold and oil. Australia's income rises and falls with them. Learn more
- A$155−2.3%
- BitcoinBitcoin The first cryptocurrency, with a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Traded around the clock and far more volatile than shares. Learn more
- A$118,540+1.2%
- AU 10-yrGovernment bond yield The annual return from buying a government bond today and holding it to maturity. Yields rise when bond prices fall. Learn more
- 5.31%+3 bp
- VIXVIX volatility index The volatility S&P 500 options are pricing for the next 30 days, as an annualised percentage. Often called the fear gauge: it rises when markets fall. Learn more
- 20.0+21.4%
Markets todayEnd-of-day prices The closing price for each trading day. FinVolio's share indices and commodities are end-of-day; crypto is live. Learn more
The Australian dollar is buying US$0.6974, little changed on the previous close.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 closed down 1.1% at 7,659 on 16 Oct 2026.
Gold is at A$6,024 an ounce (up 0.1%), and Brent crude at A$154.62 a barrel (down 2.3%).
Bitcoin is trading at A$118,540, up 1.2% over 24 hours in US dollar terms, while Ethereum is up 0.8%.
The Reserve Bank raised its cash rate target by 0.25 points to 4.60%, effective 30 Sept 2026 (3.60% a year earlier).
The US Federal Reserve raised its target range (upper bound) by 0.25 points to 4.00%, effective 17 Sept 2026.
Next on the calendar: US housing starts and building permits, Tue, 20 Oct, 11:30pm Sydney time (usual time).
Prices updated 10 min ago. Share indices and commodities are end-of-day.
Coming upRelease importance How much a release usually moves markets. Rate decisions and the inflation, jobs, growth and ISM figures are high; spending, wages and producer prices medium; housing, sentiment and trade low. Learn more
Where the cycle isBusiness cycle The recurring rise and fall of economic activity: expansion, slowdown, contraction and recovery. Learn more
Australia
Slowdown with rising inflation
- PolicyReal policy rate The policy rate minus underlying inflation. Positive means money is dear in real terms (policy is tight); negative means it is cheap (policy is loose). Learn more
- Tightening
- InflationInflation (CPI) The rise in consumer prices, usually measured as the change in the Consumer Price Index over a year. Learn more
- Above target, rising
- Labour marketSahm rule A recession signal: when the three-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 points above its low of the past year, the US has almost always been in recession. Learn more
- Weakening sharply
- GrowthTrend growth The pace an economy can grow at over the long run without overheating, set by growth in the workforce and productivity. About 2.5% a year for Australia and 2% for the US. Learn more
- Below trend
- Yield curveYield curve and inversion The gap between long-term and short-term bond yields. When short yields rise above long ones (an inversion), recessions have often followed. Learn more
- Positive
United States
Expansion with easing inflation
- PolicyReal policy rate The policy rate minus underlying inflation. Positive means money is dear in real terms (policy is tight); negative means it is cheap (policy is loose). Learn more
- Tightening
- InflationInflation (CPI) The rise in consumer prices, usually measured as the change in the Consumer Price Index over a year. Learn more
- Above target, falling
- Labour marketSahm rule A recession signal: when the three-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 points above its low of the past year, the US has almost always been in recession. Learn more
- Steady
- GrowthTrend growth The pace an economy can grow at over the long run without overheating, set by growth in the workforce and productivity. About 2.5% a year for Australia and 2% for the US. Learn more
- At or above trend
- Business surveysPMI and diffusion indices A purchasing managers' index: a monthly survey of businesses where 50 separates expansion from contraction. Above 50, more firms report growth than decline. Learn more
- Expanding, improving
- Yield curveYield curve and inversion The gap between long-term and short-term bond yields. When short yields rise above long ones (an inversion), recessions have often followed. Learn more
- Positive
Markets
| Market | LastEnd-of-day prices The closing price for each trading day. FinVolio's share indices and commodities are end-of-day; crypto is live. Learn more | 1 dayEnd-of-day prices The closing price for each trading day. FinVolio's share indices and commodities are end-of-day; crypto is live. Learn more | This yearPrice return and total return Price return counts only the change in price. Total return adds dividends or interest. Over long periods the difference is large. Learn more | 1 year | Trend, one year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian dollarUS$ | 0.6974 | 0.0% | +4.5% | +7.3% | |
| S&P 500points | 7,659.44 | −1.1% | +11.9% | +15.5% | |
| Nasdaq Compositepoints | 26,140.03 | −2.1% | +12.5% | +15.9% | |
| Nikkei 225points | 64,826.97 | −0.8% | +28.8% | +36.2% | |
| Hang Sengpoints | 24,186.84 | +0.5% | −5.6% | −6.6% | |
| FTSE 100points | 10,881.90 | +0.4% | +9.6% | +15.3% | |
| GoldA$/oz | 6,024.03 | +0.1% | −7.4% | −7.2% | |
| Brent crudeA$/bbl | 154.62 | −2.3% | +69.6% | +63.7% | |
| VIX volatility indexpoints | 19.99 | +21.4% | +33.7% | −21.0% |
Financial Modeling Prep, end-of-day. All markets
Crypto24-hour change (crypto) Crypto trades every day, all day, so changes are measured over the past 24 hours rather than since a market close. FinVolio shows it in US dollar terms, as exchanges publish it. Learn more
| Coin | A$ | 24 hours24-hour change (crypto) Crypto trades every day, all day, so changes are measured over the past 24 hours rather than since a market close. FinVolio shows it in US dollar terms, as exchanges publish it. Learn morein US$ | 7 daysPrice return and total return Price return counts only the change in price. Total return adds dividends or interest. Over long periods the difference is large. Learn more | Trend, 90 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BitcoinBTC | 118,540 | +1.2% | −1.9% | |
| EthereumETH | 3,482 | +0.8% | −4.9% | |
| SolanaSOL | 151.30 | +2.1% | −6.4% | |
| XRPXRP | 1.88 | +1.5% | −7.2% | |
| SuiSUI | 1.45 | +4.1% | −11.7% | |
| BNBBNB | 1,044 | +1.2% | −3.9% |
Largest by trading volume. All 13 coins
Australian economyYear on year, month on month, quarter on quarter How a figure compares with the same period a year earlier (y/y), or with the period just before (m/m, q/q). Year-on-year removes seasonal swings; shorter comparisons show turning points sooner. Learn more
| Indicator | LatestRevisions Changes to a figure after it was first published, as more complete data arrives. GDP and jobs figures are often revised by meaningful amounts. Learn more | ChangePercentage points and basis points The difference between two percentages. A rate rising from 4.00% to 4.25% is up 0.25 percentage points, or 25 basis points; it is not up 0.25%. Learn more | Next releaseFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn more | Trend, two years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBA cash rate targetRBA cash rate target The Reserve Bank of Australia's target for the overnight rate banks charge each other, set by its Monetary Policy Board eight times a year. It sets the floor under variable mortgage rates, term deposit rates and the return investors demand from shares and property. See the data3.60% a year earlier | 4.60%16 Oct | raised 0.25 ptssince 30 Sept | Tue, 3 Nov | |
| Australian 10-year bond yieldAustralian 10-year bond yield The yield on 10-year Australian Government bonds, daily. Fixed mortgage rates and the valuation of long-lived assets such as infrastructure and property trusts move with it. See the data4.22% a year earlier | 5.31%14 Oct | +0.02 ptsvs 13 Oct | – | |
| Australian inflation (monthly CPI)Australian inflation (monthly CPI) The change in the consumer price index over the past 12 months. The ABS has published a full monthly CPI since late 2025, so this monthly series is short; the quarterly measure has the long history. The Reserve Bank aims to keep inflation between 2 and 3 per cent. Readings above that band are what keep rates high. See the data3.2% a year earlier | 4.0%Aug 2026, latest available | +0.5 ptsvs Jul 2026 | Wed, 28 Octest. 4.0% | |
| Australian unemployment rateAustralian unemployment rate The share of the labour force aged 15 and over without a job and looking for one, seasonally adjusted, from the ABS Labour Force survey. The Reserve Bank weighs it directly when setting rates. A rising rate usually comes before slower consumer spending. See the dataHighest since October 2021 | 4.7%Sept 2026 | little changedvs Aug 2026 | Thu, 19 Nov | |
| Australian household spendingAustralian household spending The change over 12 months in household spending from the ABS Household Spending Indicator, which replaced the Retail Trade survey in 2025. Not adjusted for inflation. The most timely monthly read on Australian consumers, who drive about half the economy. See the data4.7% a year earlier | 6.8%Aug 2026, latest available | −0.2 ptsvs Jul 2026 | Wed, 4 Novest. 6.4% (AI) | |
| Australian GDP growth (quarterly)Australian GDP growth (quarterly) Real GDP growth from the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted. Australia reports quarterly changes, not annualised ones as in the US. The broadest measure of the economy. Two negative quarters in a row is a common, if rough, definition of recession. See the data0.8% a year earlier | 0.4%Jun qtr 2026, latest available | +0.1 ptsvs Mar qtr 2026 | Wed, 2 Dec |
US economyYear on year, month on month, quarter on quarter How a figure compares with the same period a year earlier (y/y), or with the period just before (m/m, q/q). Year-on-year removes seasonal swings; shorter comparisons show turning points sooner. Learn more
| Indicator | LatestRevisions Changes to a figure after it was first published, as more complete data arrives. GDP and jobs figures are often revised by meaningful amounts. Learn more | ChangePercentage points and basis points The difference between two percentages. A rate rising from 4.00% to 4.25% is up 0.25 percentage points, or 25 basis points; it is not up 0.25%. Learn more | Next releaseFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn more | Trend, two years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US ISM manufacturing PMIUS ISM manufacturing PMI A survey of purchasing managers at about 400 US manufacturers, combining new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories. Above 50 means activity is expanding; below 50, contracting. Published on the first business day of the month, ahead of almost every other US figure, so markets treat it as an early read on the cycle. Readings below about 42.5 have historically lined up with recessions in the wider economy. See the data48.9 a year earlier | 54.5Sept 2026 | −0.2%vs Aug 2026 | Tue, 3 Novest. 54.4 (AI) | |
| US ISM services PMIUS ISM services PMI A survey of purchasing managers at about 400 US services businesses: business activity, new orders, employment and supplier deliveries. Above 50 means expanding. Services are most of the US economy, so this covers far more of it than the manufacturing survey. See the data50.3 a year earlier | 54.9Sept 2026 | −0.9%vs Aug 2026 | Thu, 5 Novest. 54.7 (AI) | |
| US federal funds target (upper)US federal funds target (upper) The top of the Federal Reserve's target range for the overnight rate between US banks. The world's most important policy rate. It pulls on global borrowing costs and on the Australian dollar. See the data4.25% a year earlier | 4.00%18 Oct | raised 0.25 ptssince 17 Sept | Thu, 29 Octest. 4.00% | |
| US 10-year Treasury yieldUS 10-year Treasury yield The market yield on 10-year US Government bonds. The world's benchmark long-term interest rate. It feeds into Australian bond yields and the price of growth shares everywhere. See the data4.05% a year earlier | 5.10%15 Oct | −0.09 ptsvs 14 Oct | – | |
| US yield curve (10-year minus 2-year)US yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) The 10-year US Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield. When it falls below zero (inverts), investors expect rates to be cut, usually because they expect a slowdown. Inversions preceded each US recession since the late 1970s, with lags of months to years, and there have been false signals. See the dataPositive: long rates above short | 0.35 pts16 Oct | +0.02 ptsvs 15 Oct | – | |
| US inflation (CPI)US inflation (CPI) The change in the US consumer price index over the previous 12 months, seasonally adjusted. It drives what the Federal Reserve does next, and through it, global interest rates. See the data3.0% a year earlier | 3.7%Sept 2026 | +0.3 ptsvs Aug 2026 | Wed, 11 Nov | |
| US unemployment rateUS unemployment rate The share of the US labour force without a job and looking for one, seasonally adjusted. Half of the Federal Reserve's mandate. A rise of half a point or more from its recent low has historically come early in US recessions. See the data4.4% a year earlier | 4.2%Sept 2026 | +0.1 ptsvs Aug 2026 | Sat, 7 Nov |
Change is on the previous reading; context compares with each series' own history. Sources: RBA, ABS, FRED. All 100 indicators
Released this week
| Indicator | Reading | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US producer prices (final demand)United States | 6.3%Sept 2026 | +0.7 ptsvs Aug 2026 |
| US retail salesUnited States | 0.8%Sept 2026 | −0.5 ptsvs Aug 2026 |
| Australian unemployment rateAustralia | 4.7%Sept 2026 | little changedvs Aug 2026 |
| Australian jobs addedAustralia | −39.3kSept 2026 | −68.6kvs Aug 2026 |
| Australian full-time jobs addedAustralia | 34.4kSept 2026 | +38.4kvs Aug 2026 |
| Australian employment-to-population ratioAustralia | 63.6%Sept 2026 | −0.3 ptsvs Aug 2026 |
| Australian official gold holdingsAustralia | A$15.37 bnSept 2026 | −6.0%vs Aug 2026 |
| US inflation (CPI)United States | 3.7%Sept 2026 | +0.3 ptsvs Aug 2026 |
| US core inflation (CPI)United States | 2.6%Sept 2026 | +0.2 ptsvs Aug 2026 |
| US food inflationUnited States | 2.5%Sept 2026 | −0.1 ptsvs Aug 2026 |
Biggest moves: markets
| On the previous close | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| VIX volatility index | 19.99 | +21.4% |
| Brent crude | A$154.62 | −2.3% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,140.03 | −2.1% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,721.37 | −1.7% |
| S&P 500 | 7,659.44 | −1.1% |
Biggest moves: crypto
| Past 24 hours, change in US$ | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sui | A$1.45 | +4.1% |
| Polkadot | A$1.61 | +2.7% |
| Solana | A$151.30 | +2.1% |
| XRP | A$1.88 | +1.5% |
| BNB | A$1,044 | +1.2% |
Latest headlines
- I think this ASX share is a bargain buy after hitting a 52-week low: Here's why (opens the publisher's site in a new tab)
- ASX rallies to close; Challenger shares jump on TAL bid (opens the publisher's site in a new tab)
- RBA assistant governor Christopher Kent rejects claims rate hikes only hurt mortgage holders (opens the publisher's site in a new tab)
- Further rate rises risk tipping economy ‘over the edge’ (opens the publisher's site in a new tab)
- Could Bitcoin Price Drop to $10,000? Bloomberg Analyst Gives Grim Warning (opens the publisher's site in a new tab)
- The $38b battle for Australia’s top gold miner may be just beginning (opens the publisher's site in a new tab)
- Bitcoin Price: Record $125 Trillion Money Supply Fails To Lift BTC As November Signal Draws Near (opens the publisher's site in a new tab)
- Australia Gold Exploration Boom: What It Means for India (opens the publisher's site in a new tab)
Explainers
- How the RBA cash rate reaches your money
- Headline CPI or the trimmed mean? Which inflation number matters
- How to read the monthly jobs figures
- What the yield curve is telling you
- Credit spreads, the bond market's fear gauge
- What moves the Australian dollar
- Iron ore, China and the Australian dollar
- How to read crypto price moves
Pin the markets, coins and indicators you check most with "Add to your list" on their pages, and they will lead this page. No account needed.