Economy · United States · Rates and bonds
US yield curve (10-year minus 2-year)
0.35 pts on 16 Oct 2026, compared with 0.33 pts on 15 Oct 2026.
- Range, past 10 years52-week and 10-year range The lowest and highest values over a period, with a marker for where the latest value sits between them. Learn more
- −1.08 pts 3 Jul 20231.59 pts 29 Mar 2021
- Over 3 monthsYear on year, month on month, quarter on quarter How a figure compares with the same period a year earlier (y/y), or with the period just before (m/m, q/q). Year-on-year removes seasonal swings; shorter comparisons show turning points sooner. Learn more
- −0.06 ptsfrom 0.41 pts
- Over 12 monthsPercentage points and basis points The difference between two percentages. A rate rising from 4.00% to 4.25% is up 0.25 percentage points, or 25 basis points; it is not up 0.25%. Learn more
- −0.23 ptsfrom 0.58 pts
- Long-run averageLong-run average The average of every reading in the series' history. A rough guide to what is normal, though economies change and some series never return to their old average. Learn more
- 1.01 ptssince 1999
- Against its historyPercentile against history Where the latest reading ranks among every reading since the series began. The 90th percentile means it is higher than 90% of past readings. Learn more
- 32ndpercentile: higher than 32% of readings since 1999
HistorySeasonally adjusted A figure with the regular calendar pattern removed (Christmas, school holidays, harvests), so one month can be compared fairly with the next. Learn more
percentage points, daily
−2.0−1.00.01.02.015 Oct 202119 Apr 202416 Oct 2026
Show the data
| Period | percentage points |
|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | 0.35 pts |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 0.33 pts |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 0.37 pts |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 0.42 pts |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.44 pts |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 0.47 pts |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 0.51 pts |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 0.48 pts |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 0.47 pts |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 0.45 pts |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.46 pts |
| 30 Sept 2026 | 0.41 pts |
| 29 Sept 2026 | 0.37 pts |
| 28 Sept 2026 | 0.32 pts |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 0.36 pts |
| 24 Sept 2026 | 0.31 pts |
| 23 Sept 2026 | 0.26 pts |
| 22 Sept 2026 | 0.25 pts |
| 21 Sept 2026 | 0.20 pts |
| 18 Sept 2026 | 0.25 pts |
| 17 Sept 2026 | 0.27 pts |
| 16 Sept 2026 | 0.27 pts |
| 15 Sept 2026 | 0.33 pts |
| 14 Sept 2026 | 0.32 pts |
The latest 24 readings in this range.
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, series T10Y2Y. Data from 4 Jan 1999.
What it measures
The 10-year US Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield.
Why it matters
When it falls below zero (inverts), investors expect rates to be cut, usually because they expect a slowdown. Inversions preceded each US recession since the late 1970s, with lags of months to years, and there have been false signals.