Economy · United States · Rates and bonds
US yield curve (10-year minus 2-year)
0.35 pts on 16 Oct 2026, compared with 0.33 pts on 15 Oct 2026.
- Range, past 10 years52-week and 10-year range The lowest and highest values over a period, with a marker for where the latest value sits between them. Learn more
- −1.08 pts 3 Jul 20231.59 pts 29 Mar 2021
- Over 3 monthsYear on year, month on month, quarter on quarter How a figure compares with the same period a year earlier (y/y), or with the period just before (m/m, q/q). Year-on-year removes seasonal swings; shorter comparisons show turning points sooner. Learn more
- −0.06 ptsfrom 0.41 pts
- Over 12 monthsPercentage points and basis points The difference between two percentages. A rate rising from 4.00% to 4.25% is up 0.25 percentage points, or 25 basis points; it is not up 0.25%. Learn more
- −0.23 ptsfrom 0.58 pts
- Long-run averageLong-run average The average of every reading in the series' history. A rough guide to what is normal, though economies change and some series never return to their old average. Learn more
- 1.01 ptssince 1999
- Against its historyPercentile against history Where the latest reading ranks among every reading since the series began. The 90th percentile means it is higher than 90% of past readings. Learn more
- 32ndpercentile: higher than 32% of readings since 1999
HistorySeasonally adjusted A figure with the regular calendar pattern removed (Christmas, school holidays, harvests), so one month can be compared fairly with the next. Learn more
percentage points, daily
0.00.20.40.60.815 Oct 202416 Oct 202516 Oct 2026
Show the data
| Period | percentage points |
|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | 0.35 pts |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 0.33 pts |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 0.37 pts |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 0.42 pts |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.44 pts |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 0.47 pts |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 0.51 pts |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 0.48 pts |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 0.47 pts |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 0.45 pts |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.46 pts |
| 30 Sept 2026 | 0.41 pts |
| 29 Sept 2026 | 0.37 pts |
| 28 Sept 2026 | 0.32 pts |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 0.36 pts |
| 24 Sept 2026 | 0.31 pts |
| 23 Sept 2026 | 0.26 pts |
| 22 Sept 2026 | 0.25 pts |
| 21 Sept 2026 | 0.20 pts |
| 18 Sept 2026 | 0.25 pts |
| 17 Sept 2026 | 0.27 pts |
| 16 Sept 2026 | 0.27 pts |
| 15 Sept 2026 | 0.33 pts |
| 14 Sept 2026 | 0.32 pts |
The latest 24 readings in this range.
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, series T10Y2Y. Data from 4 Jan 1999.
What it measures
The 10-year US Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield.
Why it matters
When it falls below zero (inverts), investors expect rates to be cut, usually because they expect a slowdown. Inversions preceded each US recession since the late 1970s, with lags of months to years, and there have been false signals.