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FinVolio

Learn · Statistics

80% range

A band that the actual figure should land inside about four times in five. If actuals fall outside it more often than one time in five, the estimate is overconfident.

A single-number estimate hides how uncertain it is. A range shows it. An 80% range is drawn so that, over many estimates, about 80% of actual outcomes fall inside it.

FinVolio's model range comes from how far the same rule has missed over the past three years. The AI states its own range.

Why it matters

Calibration matters more than any single hit. An estimator whose 80% ranges catch the actual figure 80% of the time can be trusted to describe its own uncertainty.

General information, not advice.