Two estimates are made for each release in the next three weeks. The model estimate is a deliberately simple rule: the last reading plus half of the average change over the three readings before it. It shows what you would expect if nothing in particular is happening.
The AI estimate is made by a large language model (Claude) given the series' history and the latest readings of related indicators, such as business surveys, prices and the labour market. It gives a figure, a range, and a short reason that cites the numbers it relied on.
Each estimate comes with an 80% range: the band the actual figure should fall inside roughly four times in five if the estimate is well calibrated.
Why it matters
Markets react to the surprise, the gap between what was expected and what was published, not to the figure itself. Professional calendars show a consensus of economists' forecasts; that data is licensed and expensive. FinVolio's estimates give a transparent stand-in, and every one is scored after the release so you can judge how much weight to give them.
On FinVolio
Shown in the calendar, in the Next release column of the economy tables, and on each indicator page with its track record.
General information, not advice.