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FinVolio

Economy · United States · Employment

US unemployment rate

4.2% in September 2026, compared with 4.1% in August 2026.

Monthly · % · 4.4% a year earlier · Updated 11 hrs ago

Next: Jobs report (employment situation), Sat, 7 Nov, 12:30am Sydney time (usual time)

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Range, past 10 years52-week and 10-year range The lowest and highest values over a period, with a marker for where the latest value sits between them. Learn more
3.4% Apr 202314.8% Apr 2020
Over 3 monthsYear on year, month on month, quarter on quarter How a figure compares with the same period a year earlier (y/y), or with the period just before (m/m, q/q). Year-on-year removes seasonal swings; shorter comparisons show turning points sooner. Learn more
unchangedfrom 4.2%
Over 12 monthsPercentage points and basis points The difference between two percentages. A rate rising from 4.00% to 4.25% is up 0.25 percentage points, or 25 basis points; it is not up 0.25%. Learn more
−0.2 ptsfrom 4.4%
Long-run averageLong-run average The average of every reading in the series' history. A rough guide to what is normal, though economies change and some series never return to their old average. Learn more
5.6%since 1999
Against its historyPercentile against history Where the latest reading ranks among every reading since the series began. The 90th percentile means it is higher than 90% of past readings. Learn more
24thpercentile: higher than 24% of readings since 1999

HistorySeasonally adjusted A figure with the regular calendar pattern removed (Christmas, school holidays, harvests), so one month can be compared fairly with the next. Learn more

%, monthly

Show the data
Period%
September 20264.2%
August 20264.1%
July 20264.1%
June 20264.2%
May 20264.3%
April 20264.3%
March 20264.3%
February 20264.4%
January 20264.3%
December 20254.4%
November 20254.5%
September 20254.4%
August 20254.3%
July 20254.3%
June 20254.1%
May 20254.3%
April 20254.2%
March 20254.2%
February 20254.2%
January 20254.0%
December 20244.1%
November 20244.2%
October 20244.1%
September 20244.1%

The latest 24 readings in this range.

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, series UNRATE. Data from January 1999.

Next releaseFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn more

Sat, 7 Nov, 12:30am Sydney time (usual time) · Jobs report (employment situation), for October 2026

AI estimateFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn moreclaude-sonnet-5-555.0%range −110.0% to 195.0%
Model estimate80% range A band that the actual figure should land inside about four times in five. If actuals fall outside it more often than one time in five, the estimate is overconfident. Learn morelast reading plus half the recent trend29.0%range −170.0% to 228.0%
Last reading4.2%September 2026

Recent prints are noisy, with a 12-month average near 40 and a 6-month average near 70, while ISM PMIs near 54-55, low jobless claims (199k) and a 4.2% unemployment rate point to modest positive hiring. I shade the estimate slightly above the last value (29) toward the recent mean and keep a wide range, since monthly swings of ±150 have been common.

Estimates are FinVolio's own, made from this series and related indicators. They are not a consensus forecast and not advice.

What it measures

The share of the US labour force without a job and looking for one, seasonally adjusted.

Why it matters

Half of the Federal Reserve's mandate. A rise of half a point or more from its recent low has historically come early in US recessions.