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FinVolio

Economy · United States · Consumer

US consumer spending

6.1% in August 2026, compared with 5.7% in July 2026.

Monthly · % a year · 5.6% a year earlier · Updated 11 hrs ago

Next: PCE inflation and consumer spending, Thu, 29 Oct, 11:30pm Sydney time (usual time)

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Range, past 10 years52-week and 10-year range The lowest and highest values over a period, with a marker for where the latest value sits between them. Learn more
−14.3% Apr 202029.9% Apr 2021
Over 3 monthsYear on year, month on month, quarter on quarter How a figure compares with the same period a year earlier (y/y), or with the period just before (m/m, q/q). Year-on-year removes seasonal swings; shorter comparisons show turning points sooner. Learn more
−0.5 ptsfrom 6.6%
Over 12 monthsPercentage points and basis points The difference between two percentages. A rate rising from 4.00% to 4.25% is up 0.25 percentage points, or 25 basis points; it is not up 0.25%. Learn more
+0.5 ptsfrom 5.6%
Long-run averageLong-run average The average of every reading in the series' history. A rough guide to what is normal, though economies change and some series never return to their old average. Learn more
4.8%since 2000
Against its historyPercentile against history Where the latest reading ranks among every reading since the series began. The 90th percentile means it is higher than 90% of past readings. Learn more
79thpercentile: higher than 79% of readings since 2000

HistorySeasonally adjusted A figure with the regular calendar pattern removed (Christmas, school holidays, harvests), so one month can be compared fairly with the next. Learn more

% a year, monthly

Show the data
Period% a year
August 20266.1%
July 20265.7%
June 20266.2%
May 20266.6%
April 20265.8%
March 20265.3%
February 20265.2%
January 20264.8%
December 20254.3%
November 20255.0%
October 20255.2%
September 20255.3%
August 20255.6%
July 20255.4%
June 20255.2%
May 20255.0%
April 20255.5%
March 20255.5%
February 20255.5%
January 20256.0%
December 20246.5%
November 20245.8%
October 20245.7%
September 20245.7%

The latest 24 readings in this range.

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, series PCE, shown as the change on a year earlier. Data from January 2000.

Next releaseFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn more

Thu, 29 Oct, 11:30pm Sydney time (usual time) · PCE inflation and consumer spending, for September 2026

AI estimateFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn moreclaude-sonnet-5-53.5%range 3.1% to 3.9%
Model estimate80% range A band that the actual figure should land inside about four times in five. If actuals fall outside it more often than one time in five, the estimate is overconfident. Learn morelast reading plus half the recent trend3.4%range 3.1% to 3.6%
Last reading6.1%August 2026

Headline PCE has stayed in a 3.4-3.8% range since March 2026 (3.42% in August), and September CPI rose 0.3 pts to 3.7% while PPI accelerated to 6.3%, which points to slightly firmer headline PCE. Core PCE is steady near 3.0%, which limits how far headline can move, so I put the estimate marginally above the 3.4 baseline.

Estimates are FinVolio's own, made from this series and related indicators. They are not a consensus forecast and not advice.

What it measures

The change over 12 months in US personal consumption expenditures, in current dollars.

Why it matters

Household spending drives most of the US economy and much of world demand.