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FinVolio

Economy · United States · Consumer

US retail sales

0.8% in September 2026, compared with 1.3% in August 2026.

Monthly · % on previous month · 0.1% a year earlier · Updated 10 hrs ago

Next: Retail sales, Wed, 18 Nov, 12:30am Sydney time (usual time)

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Range, past 10 years52-week and 10-year range The lowest and highest values over a period, with a marker for where the latest value sits between them. Learn more
−14.2% Apr 202019.4% May 2020
Over 3 monthsYear on year, month on month, quarter on quarter How a figure compares with the same period a year earlier (y/y), or with the period just before (m/m, q/q). Year-on-year removes seasonal swings; shorter comparisons show turning points sooner. Learn more
+0.6 ptsfrom 0.2%
Over 12 monthsPercentage points and basis points The difference between two percentages. A rate rising from 4.00% to 4.25% is up 0.25 percentage points, or 25 basis points; it is not up 0.25%. Learn more
+0.7 ptsfrom 0.1%
Long-run averageLong-run average The average of every reading in the series' history. A rough guide to what is normal, though economies change and some series never return to their old average. Learn more
0.4%since 1999
Against its historyPercentile against history Where the latest reading ranks among every reading since the series began. The 90th percentile means it is higher than 90% of past readings. Learn more
69thpercentile: higher than 69% of readings since 1999

HistorySeasonally adjusted A figure with the regular calendar pattern removed (Christmas, school holidays, harvests), so one month can be compared fairly with the next. Learn more

% on previous month, monthly

Show the data
Period% on previous month
September 20260.8%
August 20261.3%
July 2026−0.4%
June 20260.2%
May 20261.0%
April 20260.6%
March 20261.7%
February 20260.9%
January 2026−0.6%
December 20250.1%
November 20250.7%
October 2025−0.0%
September 20250.1%
August 20250.3%
July 20250.9%
June 20250.9%
May 2025−1.4%
April 20250.1%
March 20251.6%
February 2025−0.5%
January 2025−0.7%
December 20240.9%
November 20240.6%
October 20240.9%

The latest 24 readings in this range.

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, series RSAFS, shown as the change on the previous month. Data from February 1999.

Next releaseFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn more

Wed, 18 Nov, 12:30am Sydney time (usual time) · Retail sales

Estimates are made in the three weeks before a release.

Track record for this indicator: AI 100% of actuals inside its range over 1 releases, average miss 0.4; model 100% over 1, average miss 0.3.

PeriodEstimateActualMiss
September 2026AI0.4%0.8%0.4

Estimates are FinVolio's own, made from this series and related indicators. They are not a consensus forecast and not advice.

What it measures

The monthly change in the value of US retail and food-service sales, seasonally adjusted, not adjusted for inflation.

Why it matters

The first hard read on consumer spending each month.