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FinVolio

Economy · United States · Growth and trade

US GDP growth (annualised)

2.2% in June quarter 2026, compared with 2.5% in March quarter 2026.

Quarterly · % annualised · 4.0% a year earlier · Updated 12 hrs ago

Next: GDP, Thu, 29 Oct, 11:30pm Sydney time (usual time)

Add US GDP growth (annualised) to your list

Range, past 10 years52-week and 10-year range The lowest and highest values over a period, with a marker for where the latest value sits between them. Learn more
−28.0% Jun qtr 202034.9% Sep qtr 2020
Over 3 monthsYear on year, month on month, quarter on quarter How a figure compares with the same period a year earlier (y/y), or with the period just before (m/m, q/q). Year-on-year removes seasonal swings; shorter comparisons show turning points sooner. Learn more
−0.3 ptsfrom 2.5%
Over 12 monthsPercentage points and basis points The difference between two percentages. A rate rising from 4.00% to 4.25% is up 0.25 percentage points, or 25 basis points; it is not up 0.25%. Learn more
−1.8 ptsfrom 4.0%
Long-run averageLong-run average The average of every reading in the series' history. A rough guide to what is normal, though economies change and some series never return to their old average. Learn more
2.4%since 1999
Against its historyPercentile against history Where the latest reading ranks among every reading since the series began. The 90th percentile means it is higher than 90% of past readings. Learn more
38thpercentile: higher than 38% of readings since 1999

HistorySeasonally adjusted A figure with the regular calendar pattern removed (Christmas, school holidays, harvests), so one month can be compared fairly with the next. Learn more

% annualised, quarterly

Show the data
Period% annualised
June quarter 20262.2%
March quarter 20262.5%
December quarter 20250.2%
September quarter 20253.9%
June quarter 20254.0%
March quarter 20250.1%
December quarter 20242.4%
September quarter 20243.2%
June quarter 20243.6%

The latest 9 readings in this range.

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, series A191RL1Q225SBEA. Data from March quarter 1999.

Next releaseFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn more

Thu, 29 Oct, 11:30pm Sydney time (usual time) · GDP, for September quarter 2026

AI estimateFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn moreclaude-sonnet-5-52.0%range −0.8% to 4.1%
Model estimate80% range A band that the actual figure should land inside about four times in five. If actuals fall outside it more often than one time in five, the estimate is overconfident. Learn morelast reading plus half the recent trend1.9%range −16.6% to 20.4%
Last reading2.2%June quarter 2026

Recent quarters have been mostly 2-4% apart from the Q4 2025 dip to 0.2 and the latest readings of 2.5 and 2.2. ISM manufacturing at 54.5 and services at 54.9 point to solid expansion, while CPI at 3.7% and a widening trade deficit (-105.6bn) are modest drags, so I estimate growth near trend at about 2%.

Estimates are FinVolio's own, made from this series and related indicators. They are not a consensus forecast and not advice.

What it measures

Real GDP growth in the quarter, expressed as an annual rate, as US statistics conventionally report it.

Why it matters

The broadest measure of the US economy. Annualised figures are about four times a plain quarterly change.