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FinVolio

Economy · United States · Growth and trade

US real GDP growth (year on year)

2.2% in June quarter 2026, compared with 2.6% in March quarter 2026.

Quarterly · % a year · 2.4% a year earlier · Updated 11 hrs ago

Next: GDP, Thu, 29 Oct, 11:30pm Sydney time (usual time)

Add US real GDP growth (year on year) to your list

Range, past 10 years52-week and 10-year range The lowest and highest values over a period, with a marker for where the latest value sits between them. Learn more
−7.4% Jun qtr 202012.6% Jun qtr 2021
Over 3 monthsYear on year, month on month, quarter on quarter How a figure compares with the same period a year earlier (y/y), or with the period just before (m/m, q/q). Year-on-year removes seasonal swings; shorter comparisons show turning points sooner. Learn more
−0.4 ptsfrom 2.6%
Over 12 monthsPercentage points and basis points The difference between two percentages. A rate rising from 4.00% to 4.25% is up 0.25 percentage points, or 25 basis points; it is not up 0.25%. Learn more
−0.2 ptsfrom 2.4%
Long-run averageLong-run average The average of every reading in the series' history. A rough guide to what is normal, though economies change and some series never return to their old average. Learn more
2.2%since 2000
Against its historyPercentile against history Where the latest reading ranks among every reading since the series began. The 90th percentile means it is higher than 90% of past readings. Learn more
42ndpercentile: higher than 42% of readings since 2000

HistorySeasonally adjusted A figure with the regular calendar pattern removed (Christmas, school holidays, harvests), so one month can be compared fairly with the next. Learn more

% a year, quarterly

Show the data
Period% a year
June quarter 20262.2%
March quarter 20262.6%
December quarter 20252.0%
September quarter 20252.6%
June quarter 20252.4%
March quarter 20252.3%
December quarter 20242.6%
September quarter 20242.9%
June quarter 20243.3%
March quarter 20242.9%
December quarter 20233.4%
September quarter 20233.2%
June quarter 20232.7%
March quarter 20232.3%
December quarter 20221.2%
September quarter 20222.2%
June quarter 20222.3%
March quarter 20224.0%
December quarter 20215.8%
September quarter 20215.3%
June quarter 202112.6%

The latest 21 readings in this range.

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, series GDPC1, shown as the change on a year earlier. Data from March quarter 2000.

Next releaseFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn more

Thu, 29 Oct, 11:30pm Sydney time (usual time) · GDP, for September quarter 2026

AI estimateFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn moreclaude-sonnet-5-52.0%range −0.8% to 4.1%
Model estimate80% range A band that the actual figure should land inside about four times in five. If actuals fall outside it more often than one time in five, the estimate is overconfident. Learn morelast reading plus half the recent trend1.9%range −16.6% to 20.4%
Last reading2.2%June quarter 2026

Recent quarters have been mostly 2-4% apart from the Q4 2025 dip to 0.2 and the latest readings of 2.5 and 2.2. ISM manufacturing at 54.5 and services at 54.9 point to solid expansion, while CPI at 3.7% and a widening trade deficit (-105.6bn) are modest drags, so I estimate growth near trend at about 2%.

Estimates are FinVolio's own, made from this series and related indicators. They are not a consensus forecast and not advice.

What it measures

The change in inflation-adjusted US GDP over the past four quarters.

Why it matters

Comparable with how Australia and most other countries report growth.