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Economy · United States · Inflation

US PCE inflation

3.4% in August 2026, little changed from 3.4% in July 2026.

Monthly · % a year · 2.7% a year earlier · Updated 12 hrs ago

Next: PCE inflation and consumer spending, Thu, 29 Oct, 11:30pm Sydney time (usual time)

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Range, past 10 years52-week and 10-year range The lowest and highest values over a period, with a marker for where the latest value sits between them. Learn more
0.5% Apr 20207.2% Jun 2022
Over 3 monthsYear on year, month on month, quarter on quarter How a figure compares with the same period a year earlier (y/y), or with the period just before (m/m, q/q). Year-on-year removes seasonal swings; shorter comparisons show turning points sooner. Learn more
−0.4 ptsfrom 3.8%
Over 12 monthsPercentage points and basis points The difference between two percentages. A rate rising from 4.00% to 4.25% is up 0.25 percentage points, or 25 basis points; it is not up 0.25%. Learn more
+0.7 ptsfrom 2.7%
Long-run averageLong-run average The average of every reading in the series' history. A rough guide to what is normal, though economies change and some series never return to their old average. Learn more
2.2%since 2000
Against its historyPercentile against history Where the latest reading ranks among every reading since the series began. The 90th percentile means it is higher than 90% of past readings. Learn more
87thpercentile: higher than 87% of readings since 2000

HistorySeasonally adjusted A figure with the regular calendar pattern removed (Christmas, school holidays, harvests), so one month can be compared fairly with the next. Learn more

% a year, monthly

Show the data
Period% a year
August 20263.4%
July 20263.4%
June 20263.5%
May 20263.8%
April 20263.6%
March 20263.4%
February 20262.8%
January 20262.7%
December 20252.8%
November 20252.7%
October 20252.7%
September 20252.8%
August 20252.7%
July 20252.6%
June 20252.6%
May 20252.5%
April 20252.3%
March 20252.3%
February 20252.6%
January 20252.6%
December 20242.6%
November 20242.5%
October 20242.4%
September 20242.3%

The latest 24 readings in this range.

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, series PCEPI, shown as the change on a year earlier. Data from January 2000.

Next releaseFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn more

Thu, 29 Oct, 11:30pm Sydney time (usual time) · PCE inflation and consumer spending, for September 2026

AI estimateFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn moreclaude-sonnet-5-53.5%range 3.1% to 3.9%
Model estimate80% range A band that the actual figure should land inside about four times in five. If actuals fall outside it more often than one time in five, the estimate is overconfident. Learn morelast reading plus half the recent trend3.4%range 3.1% to 3.6%
Last reading3.4%August 2026

Headline PCE has stayed in a 3.4-3.8% range since March 2026 (3.42% in August), and September CPI rose 0.3 pts to 3.7% while PPI accelerated to 6.3%, which points to slightly firmer headline PCE. Core PCE is steady near 3.0%, which limits how far headline can move, so I put the estimate marginally above the 3.4 baseline.

Estimates are FinVolio's own, made from this series and related indicators. They are not a consensus forecast and not advice.

What it measures

The change over 12 months in the personal consumption expenditures price index.

Why it matters

The Federal Reserve's 2 per cent target is defined in terms of PCE inflation, not the CPI.