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Economy · United States · Growth and trade

US trade balance

−US$105.6 bn in August 2026, compared with −US$92.8 bn in July 2026.

Monthly · US$ billion a month · Widest deficit since March 2025 · Updated 12 hrs ago

Next: Trade balance, Thu, 5 Nov, 12:30am Sydney time (usual time)

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Range, past 10 years52-week and 10-year range The lowest and highest values over a period, with a marker for where the latest value sits between them. Learn more
−US$133.0 bn Mar 2025−US$35.5 bn Sept 2016
Long-run averageLong-run average The average of every reading in the series' history. A rough guide to what is normal, though economies change and some series never return to their old average. Learn more
−US$48.4 bnsince 1999
Against its historyPercentile against history Where the latest reading ranks among every reading since the series began. The 90th percentile means it is higher than 90% of past readings. Learn more
1stpercentile: higher than 1% of readings since 1999

HistorySeasonally adjusted A figure with the regular calendar pattern removed (Christmas, school holidays, harvests), so one month can be compared fairly with the next. Learn more

US$ billion a month, monthly

Show the data
PeriodUS$ billion a month
August 2026−US$105.6 bn
July 2026−US$92.8 bn
June 2026−US$71.2 bn
May 2026−US$75.8 bn
April 2026−US$52.9 bn
March 2026−US$53.7 bn
February 2026−US$52.5 bn
January 2026−US$52.7 bn
December 2025−US$76.1 bn
November 2025−US$63.9 bn
October 2025−US$37.4 bn
September 2025−US$59.4 bn
August 2025−US$59.6 bn
July 2025−US$75.1 bn
June 2025−US$58.7 bn
May 2025−US$66.7 bn
April 2025−US$60.3 bn
March 2025−US$133.0 bn
February 2025−US$117.1 bn
January 2025−US$124.7 bn
December 2024−US$96.8 bn
November 2024−US$79.8 bn
October 2024−US$75.8 bn
September 2024−US$83.3 bn

The latest 24 readings in this range.

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, series BOPGSTB. Data from January 1999.

Next releaseFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn more

Thu, 5 Nov, 12:30am Sydney time (usual time) · Trade balance, for September 2026

AI estimateFinVolio estimates FinVolio's own estimate of what an upcoming release will show, from a stated statistical rule and, where available, an AI estimate with its reasoning. Not a consensus forecast and not advice. Learn moreclaude-sonnet-5-5−US$97.0 bnrange −US$125.0 bn to −US$72.0 bn
Model estimate80% range A band that the actual figure should land inside about four times in five. If actuals fall outside it more often than one time in five, the estimate is overconfident. Learn morelast reading plus half the recent trend−US$110.5 bnrange −US$136.0 bn to −US$85.1 bn
Last reading−US$105.6 bnAugust 2026

The deficit widened sharply to -105.6bn in August (imports 420.8bn vs exports 315.2bn) after -92.8bn in July, but the series is volatile and large jumps have often partly reversed (e.g. -75.1bn in July 2025 to -59.6bn in August 2025). I expect some mean reversion from the August extreme, with strong ISM readings (54.5 manufacturing, 54.9 services) supporting imports and keeping the deficit wide at

Estimates are FinVolio's own, made from this series and related indicators. They are not a consensus forecast and not advice.

What it measures

US exports minus imports of goods and services each month, seasonally adjusted. Negative means a deficit.

Why it matters

The US has run a deficit for decades; its size reflects American demand for the rest of the world's goods, and is a focus of tariff policy.