Economy · United States · Rates and bonds
US yield curve (10-year minus 3-month)
0.83 pts on 16 Oct 2026, compared with 0.82 pts on 15 Oct 2026.
- Range, past 10 years52-week and 10-year range The lowest and highest values over a period, with a marker for where the latest value sits between them. Learn more
- −1.89 pts 4 May 20232.27 pts 6 May 2022
- Over 3 monthsYear on year, month on month, quarter on quarter How a figure compares with the same period a year earlier (y/y), or with the period just before (m/m, q/q). Year-on-year removes seasonal swings; shorter comparisons show turning points sooner. Learn more
- +0.10 ptsfrom 0.73 pts
- Over 12 monthsPercentage points and basis points The difference between two percentages. A rate rising from 4.00% to 4.25% is up 0.25 percentage points, or 25 basis points; it is not up 0.25%. Learn more
- +0.86 ptsfrom −0.03 pts
- Long-run averageLong-run average The average of every reading in the series' history. A rough guide to what is normal, though economies change and some series never return to their old average. Learn more
- 1.34 ptssince 1999
- Against its historyPercentile against history Where the latest reading ranks among every reading since the series began. The 90th percentile means it is higher than 90% of past readings. Learn more
- 36thpercentile: higher than 36% of readings since 1999
HistorySeasonally adjusted A figure with the regular calendar pattern removed (Christmas, school holidays, harvests), so one month can be compared fairly with the next. Learn more
percentage points, daily
−2.00.02.04.04 Jan 199928 Nov 201216 Oct 2026
Show the data
| Period | percentage points |
|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | 0.83 pts |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 0.82 pts |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 0.91 pts |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 0.95 pts |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 0.99 pts |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 0.99 pts |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 1.06 pts |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 1.06 pts |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 1.09 pts |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 1.09 pts |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 1.07 pts |
| 30 Sept 2026 | 1.09 pts |
| 29 Sept 2026 | 1.01 pts |
| 28 Sept 2026 | 0.96 pts |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 0.93 pts |
| 24 Sept 2026 | 0.94 pts |
| 23 Sept 2026 | 0.92 pts |
| 22 Sept 2026 | 0.80 pts |
| 21 Sept 2026 | 0.79 pts |
| 18 Sept 2026 | 0.87 pts |
| 17 Sept 2026 | 0.82 pts |
| 16 Sept 2026 | 0.87 pts |
| 15 Sept 2026 | 0.89 pts |
| 14 Sept 2026 | 0.86 pts |
The latest 24 readings in this range.
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, series T10Y3M. Data from 4 Jan 1999.
What it measures
The 10-year US Treasury yield minus the 3-month Treasury bill yield.
Why it matters
The spread used in the New York Federal Reserve's model of recession probability.