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FinVolio

Economy · United States · Rates and bonds

US yield curve (10-year minus 3-month)

0.83 pts on 16 Oct 2026, compared with 0.82 pts on 15 Oct 2026.

Daily · percentage points · Positive: long rates above short · Updated 12 hrs ago

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Range, past 10 years52-week and 10-year range The lowest and highest values over a period, with a marker for where the latest value sits between them. Learn more
−1.89 pts 4 May 20232.27 pts 6 May 2022
Over 3 monthsYear on year, month on month, quarter on quarter How a figure compares with the same period a year earlier (y/y), or with the period just before (m/m, q/q). Year-on-year removes seasonal swings; shorter comparisons show turning points sooner. Learn more
+0.10 ptsfrom 0.73 pts
Over 12 monthsPercentage points and basis points The difference between two percentages. A rate rising from 4.00% to 4.25% is up 0.25 percentage points, or 25 basis points; it is not up 0.25%. Learn more
+0.86 ptsfrom −0.03 pts
Long-run averageLong-run average The average of every reading in the series' history. A rough guide to what is normal, though economies change and some series never return to their old average. Learn more
1.34 ptssince 1999
Against its historyPercentile against history Where the latest reading ranks among every reading since the series began. The 90th percentile means it is higher than 90% of past readings. Learn more
36thpercentile: higher than 36% of readings since 1999

HistorySeasonally adjusted A figure with the regular calendar pattern removed (Christmas, school holidays, harvests), so one month can be compared fairly with the next. Learn more

percentage points, daily

Show the data
Periodpercentage points
16 Oct 20260.83 pts
15 Oct 20260.82 pts
14 Oct 20260.91 pts
13 Oct 20260.95 pts
9 Oct 20260.99 pts
8 Oct 20260.99 pts
7 Oct 20261.06 pts
6 Oct 20261.06 pts
5 Oct 20261.09 pts
2 Oct 20261.09 pts
1 Oct 20261.07 pts
30 Sept 20261.09 pts
29 Sept 20261.01 pts
28 Sept 20260.96 pts
25 Sept 20260.93 pts
24 Sept 20260.94 pts
23 Sept 20260.92 pts
22 Sept 20260.80 pts
21 Sept 20260.79 pts
18 Sept 20260.87 pts
17 Sept 20260.82 pts
16 Sept 20260.87 pts
15 Sept 20260.89 pts
14 Sept 20260.86 pts

The latest 24 readings in this range.

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, series T10Y3M. Data from 4 Jan 1999.

What it measures

The 10-year US Treasury yield minus the 3-month Treasury bill yield.

Why it matters

The spread used in the New York Federal Reserve's model of recession probability.